{"id":4286,"date":"2020-04-21T08:29:57","date_gmt":"2020-04-21T08:29:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/apexconsulting.biz\/blog\/?p=4286"},"modified":"2020-04-27T05:47:25","modified_gmt":"2020-04-27T05:47:25","slug":"impact-of-covid-19-on-pakistan-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/apexconsulting.biz\/blog\/impact-of-covid-19-on-pakistan-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Impact of COVID-19 on Pakistan\u2019s Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Impressions of COVID-19 on Pakistan\u2019s Economy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UN economists\nhave warned that the deadly Corona virus epidemic could cost the global economy\n$4.0 trillion this year and called on governments to ramp up spending to\nmitigate its impact. A new report from the UNCTAD, a Geneva-based UN agency,\nconcluded that the spread of COVID19 will push some countries into recession\nand will significantly slow growth in the world economy as a whole.<a href=\"#_ftn1\">[1]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>COVID-19 is likely to have significant impact on the Pakistan\neconomy because it comes at a time when several major indicators of the economy\nwere already in a downward slope and facing an economic crisis. In the wake of\noutbreak of Coronavirus, Pakistan\u2019s initial economic losses in different\nsectors of the country\u2019s economy have been estimated at Rs1.3 trillion. These\nlosses are going to be incurred on account of drop in the GDP growth because of\nreduction in consumption (74%) including food &amp; beverage, transport,\nrecreational &amp; culture, education services sector, restaurant &amp; hotel\nand other discretionary; government expenditures (33%) including debt\nservicing; and investment (71%) including private investment.<a href=\"#_ftn2\">[2]<\/a>\nThe Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that national GDP could fall by from\n3.3% to 2.6%.<a href=\"#_ftn3\">[3]<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"620\" height=\"280\" src=\"https:\/\/apexconsulting.biz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Impact-of-COVID-19-graphs.png\" alt=\"Impression of covid-19 on Pakistan's Economy\" class=\"wp-image-4304\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Due to the likely economic recession and vulnerability of the\nemployed in the country, the COVID-19 may lead to significant increase in\npoverty and unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Poverty Index:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current <a href=\"https:\/\/apexconsulting.biz\/blog\/2020\/04\/08\/kap-and-perception-survey-on-covid-19-with-citizens-of-pakistan\/\">COVID-19<\/a> outbreak is bound to hurt the population\u2019s economic condition resulting in an increase in poverty. According to the Cost of Basic Need (CBN) approach, 24.3 percent of the population lives below the poverty line ($1.90 per day) in Pakistan.<a href=\"#_ftn4\">[4]<\/a> Apart from this, Pakistan also uses the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) based on education, health and living standard dimensions. About 39 percent of Pakistanis live in multidimensional poverty. <br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"480\" height=\"283\" src=\"https:\/\/apexconsulting.biz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Impact-of-COVID-19-graph-2.png\" alt=\"Poverty index of Pakistan due to COVID-19\" class=\"wp-image-4305\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:10px\"><a href=\"#_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> Monthly Economic\nUpdate- March (2020) by Ministry of Finance Division<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:10px\"><a href=\"#_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a> Chohan, Usman W. &#8220;Forecasting the Economic Impact\nof Coronavirus on Developing Countries: Case of Pakistan.&#8221; (2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:10px\"><a href=\"#_ftnref3\">[3]<\/a> Asian\nDevelopment Bank: Asian Development Outlook 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:10px\"><a href=\"#_ftnref4\">[4]<\/a> Economic Survey\nof Pakistan 2018-19<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>COVID-19\u2019s impact on Employment Rate\nin Pakistan:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>COVID-19 will substantially affect those who are \u2018vulnerably employed\u2019 which account for 56% (52% among males and 71% among females) of the total employment.[1] Vulnerable employment is measured as the proportion of own-account workers (also including the daily wage earners) and unpaid family workers in total employment. Among this vulnerable employment, 0.21 million people become unemployed (low impact scenario) whereas 0.62 million become unemployed (high impact scenario) from a base of 3.86 million in 2019.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/apexconsulting.biz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Impact-of-COVID-19-graph-3.png\" alt=\"Covid-19, Impact on employment rate in Pakistan\" class=\"wp-image-4307\" width=\"454\" height=\"241\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:10px\"><a href=\"#_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> PIDE COVID-19\nE-BOOK<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>An overall picture of COVID-19 on Economic Sector<\/strong> The outbreak of Corona virus has posed significant challenges for various economic sectors in terms of vulnerable employment. Domestically, restrictions on movement of people and goods within the country and on certain productive activities may also have adverse economic impacts.&nbsp; Experts estimate that between 12.3 million and 18.5 million&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.geo.tv\/latest\/279169-pakistans-business-community-disgruntled-as-sbp-stubbornly-retains-double-digit-policy-rate\" target=\"_blank\">people in various sectors may lose their jobs<\/a>. The most hit sectors such as wholesale and retail trade (5.9 million out of 6.5 vulnerable employment), agriculture (6.4 million out of 12.8 million vulnerable employment), manufacturing (1.5 million out of 2.2 million vulnerable employment), and transport and communication (2.0 million out of 2.0 million vulnerable employment) can be facing higher lay-offs (facing lose jobs who are vulnerably employed) depending on low to higher impact of COVID-19.<a href=\"#_ftn1\">[1]<\/a><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/apexconsulting.biz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Impact-of-COVID-19-graph-4.png\" alt=\"Overall picture of COVID-19 on Economic Sector\" class=\"wp-image-4292\" width=\"582\" height=\"324\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:10px\"><a href=\"#_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> Sectoral\nAnalysis of the Vulnerably Employed COVID-19 and the Pakistan\u2019s Labour Market\n(PIDE COVID 19 Bulletin No.4) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Impact on Inflation rates:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After raising\nthe policy rate to 13.25% at the beginning of FY2020, the central bank reduced\nit in 2 steps to 11% in March 2020 following the decline in global oil prices\nand sluggish demand under COVID-19. The central bank projected that Inflation\nrate decelerated further from 10.2% to 8.3% to take further policy action for\nmanaging inflation and boost economic activity.<a href=\"#_ftn1\">[1]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/apexconsulting.biz\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Impact-of-COVID-19-graph-5.png\" alt=\"Covid-19, Impact on Inflation rate in Pakistan\" class=\"wp-image-4310\" width=\"539\" height=\"266\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:10px\" class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <\/strong>Data source:\nSBP Inflation Snapshot<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Government initiatives in line with\nthe economic challenges faced due to COVID-19:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Pakistani\ngovernment announced an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/03\/26\/coronavirus-india-needs-a-support-package-larger-than-20-billion-dollars.html\">economic relief package<\/a>&nbsp;worth 900 billion rupees ($5.66\nbillion) in aid designed to help low-income families with direct cash transfers,\nfood assistance, and employment aid to farmers, and health insurance.<a href=\"#_ftn2\">[2]<\/a>&nbsp;\nIt includes 200 billion rupees ($1.25 billion) for low-income groups,\nparticularly laborers, 280 billion rupees ($1.76 billion) for wheat\nprocurement, apart from a significant reduction in petroleum prices.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:10px\"><a href=\"#_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/nation.com.pk\/04-Apr-2020\/pakistan-s-economic-growth-to-slow-down-due-to-covid-19-outbreak-adb\">https:\/\/nation.com.pk\/04-Apr-2020\/pakistan-s-economic-growth-to-slow-down-due-to-covid-19-outbreak-adb<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:10px\"><a href=\"#_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/asia-pacific\/covid-19-pakistan-unveils-economic-relief-package\/1777961\">https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/asia-pacific\/covid-19-pakistan-unveils-economic-relief-package\/1777961<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Impressions of COVID-19 on Pakistan\u2019s Economy UN economists have warned that the deadly Corona virus epidemic could cost the global economy $4.0 trillion this year and called on governments to ramp up spending to mitigate its impact. A new report from the UNCTAD, a Geneva-based UN agency, concluded that the spread of COVID19 will push [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4302,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[93,100,99],"tags":[103,102],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Impact of COVID-19 on Pakistan\u2019s Economy | APEX Consulting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The impact of COVID-19 on Pakistan Economy, Coronavirus has posed significant challenges for various economic sectors. 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